Our model gives Envigado a 30% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 41% for Unión Magdalena.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Envigado have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Unión Magdalena have done so in 0 of their last 3.