Our model gives Elgin City a 43% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Stranraer.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Elgin City have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Stranraer have done so in 2 of their last 4.