Our model gives El Porvenir a 40% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Claypole.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 35% likelihood against 65% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, El Porvenir have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Claypole have done so in 1 of their last 4.