Our model gives Ekibastuz a 53% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Jaiyq.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ekibastuz have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Jaiyq have done so in 2 of their last 3.