Our model gives Dynamo Makhachkala a 49% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Rodina Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dynamo Makhachkala have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Rodina Moskva have done so in 5 of their last 5.