Our model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 40% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Qarabağ.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dynamo Kyiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Qarabağ have done so in 0 of their last 3.