Our model gives Durango a 71% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Cruz Azul Hidalgo.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Durango have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Cruz Azul Hidalgo have done so in 1 of their last 3.