Our model gives Dungannon Swifts a 32% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 44% for Ballymena United.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dungannon Swifts have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Ballymena United have done so in 2 of their last 2.