Our model gives Dundalk a 48% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Shelbourne.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dundalk have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Shelbourne have done so in 4 of their last 5.