Our model gives Dumbarton a 24% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 52% for Spartans.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dumbarton have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Spartans have done so in 2 of their last 4.