Our model gives Dumbarton a 26% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 52% for Cove Rangers.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dumbarton have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Cove Rangers have done so in 0 of their last 1.