Our model gives Dukagjini a 20% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 59% for Lugano.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lugano have done so in 1 of their last 1.