Our model gives Drogheda United a 32% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 42% for Dundalk.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Drogheda United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Dundalk have done so in 2 of their last 3.