Our model gives Dravinja a 13% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 67% for Triglav.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dravinja have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Triglav have done so in 0 of their last 2.