Our model gives Douglas Haig a 53% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Gimnasia Chivilcoy.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Douglas Haig have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Gimnasia Chivilcoy have done so in 1 of their last 3.