Our model gives Dorking Wanderers a 41% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Chelmsford City.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dorking Wanderers have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Chelmsford City have done so in 0 of their last 2.