Our model gives Dorados a 43% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tlaxcala.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dorados have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Tlaxcala have done so in 2 of their last 3.