Our model gives Diriangén a 71% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Rancho Santana.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Diriangén have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Rancho Santana have done so in 1 of their last 3.