Our model gives Dinamo Samarqand a 59% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Xorazm.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dinamo Samarqand have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Xorazm have done so in 2 of their last 4.