Our model gives Dinamo Moskva a 53% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Rodina Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dinamo Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Rodina Moskva have done so in 5 of their last 5.