Our model gives Dinamo Moskva a 42% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Krasnodar.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dinamo Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Krasnodar have done so in 3 of their last 4.