Our model gives Derry City a 49% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Dundalk.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Derry City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Dundalk have done so in 2 of their last 3.