Our model gives Derby County a 37% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Stoke City.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Derby County have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Stoke City have done so in 1 of their last 2.