Our model gives Deportivo Táchira a 59% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Monagas.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Táchira have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Monagas have done so in 2 of their last 3.