Our model gives Deportivo Táchira a 57% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Caracas.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Táchira have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Caracas have done so in 4 of their last 4.