Our model gives Deportivo Santaní a 53% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Sportivo Carapeguá.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Santaní have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Sportivo Carapeguá have done so in 0 of their last 2.