Our model gives Deportivo Rincón a 63% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Deportivo Santamarina.

Both teams are projected to score in 34% of simulations, against 66% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 35% likelihood against 65% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Rincón have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Deportivo Santamarina have done so in 1 of their last 4.