Our model gives Deportivo Riestra a 33% chance to win this one, against 35% for a draw and 31% for Vélez Sarsfield.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Riestra have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Vélez Sarsfield have done so in 1 of their last 3.