Our model gives Deportivo Riestra a 33% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 35% for Gimnasia La Plata.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Riestra have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Gimnasia La Plata have done so in 1 of their last 3.