Our model gives Deportivo Recoleta a 23% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 52% for Olimpia.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Recoleta have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6, and Olimpia have done so in 1 of their last 5.