Our model gives Deportivo Recoleta a 25% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 48% for Boca Juniors.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Recoleta have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6, and Boca Juniors have done so in 3 of their last 6.