Our model gives Deportivo Pasto a 54% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Pereira.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Pasto have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Deportivo Pereira have done so in 0 of their last 1.