Our model gives Deportivo Muñiz a 30% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 36% for Atlas.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Muñiz have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Atlas have done so in 0 of their last 4.