Our model gives Deportivo Maipú a 52% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Patronato.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 31% likelihood against 69% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Maipú have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Patronato have done so in 2 of their last 3.