Our model gives Deportivo Madryn a 51% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 19% for Ciudad de Bolívar.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 30% likelihood against 70% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Madryn have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Ciudad de Bolívar have done so in 1 of their last 3.