Our model gives Deportivo La Guaira a 56% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 19% for UCV.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo La Guaira have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and UCV have done so in 3 of their last 4.