Our model gives Deportivo La Guaira a 53% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Estudiantes Mérida.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo La Guaira have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Estudiantes Mérida have done so in 2 of their last 3.