Our model gives Deportivo Cuenca a 59% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Libertad.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Cuenca have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Libertad have done so in 2 of their last 3.