Our model gives Deportivo Cali a 48% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Rionegro Águilas.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Deportivo Cali have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Rionegro Águilas have done so in 2 of their last 2.