Our model gives Defensores de Cambaceres a 47% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Deportivo Paraguayo.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 35% likelihood against 65% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Defensores de Cambaceres have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Deportivo Paraguayo have done so in 1 of their last 4.