Our model gives Defensores de Belgrano a 43% chance to win this one, against 35% for a draw and 23% for Almirante Brown.

Both teams are projected to score in 34% of simulations, against 66% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 25% likelihood against 75% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Defensores de Belgrano have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Almirante Brown have done so in 0 of their last 3.