Our model gives Defensa y Justicia a 38% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Platense.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Defensa y Justicia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Platense have done so in 3 of their last 5.