Our model gives DC United a 36% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 37% for Charlotte.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, DC United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Charlotte have done so in 1 of their last 2.