Our model gives Darwin Hearts a 22% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 60% for Mindil Aces.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Darwin Hearts have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Mindil Aces have done so in 3 of their last 3.