Our model gives Danubio a 46% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Wanderers.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Danubio have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Wanderers have done so in 1 of their last 3.