Our model gives Dalian Kewei a 36% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Shenzhen 2028.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dalian Kewei have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Shenzhen 2028 have done so in 2 of their last 3.