Our model gives Daegu a 43% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Chungnam Asan.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Daegu have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Chungnam Asan have done so in 2 of their last 4.