Our model gives Dacia-Buiucani a 20% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 58% for Zimbru.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Dacia-Buiucani have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Zimbru have done so in 3 of their last 3.