Our model gives Curzon Ashton a 42% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alfreton Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Curzon Ashton have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Alfreton Town have done so in 0 of their last 1.