Our model gives Cuiabá a 51% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Operário PR.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cuiabá have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Operário PR have done so in 2 of their last 2.